Well here we are in 2010. What do you think that the New Year will hold for those of us who are forex trading?

Certainly last year had many challenges as the recession was being predicted to worsen by some of the negative camps and a gentle or slow recovery was being forecast by other soothsayers.

I think that this year will be much the same. So far there have been various signs of tender recovery in some areas, but these so called “shoots of recovery” always seem to become over shadowed by under-performance or a further and unexpected rise in unemployment in another area .

If you are a news trader, then I think this will be a difficult year for you. The pattern of expectation versus disappointment will probably continue and increase. This will lead to much less extreme moves following news releases and I think that many traders will stay side-lined after the releases whilst waiting for the revisions. Of course, for the very well informed there will still be some excellent opportunities but as always, timing will be everything.

In fact I believe that in general this will be a much less volatile trading year, unless of course, there are any further surprises.

Overall I foresee the dollar continuing to decline against most major currencies, exacerbated by the continued massive and increasing national US debt which has now reach figures that are so large as to be totally unprecedented, but I do expect to see a few sudden reversals as the “old guard” will still run to the dollar as a safe haven when there is any major uncertainty.

I think that gold – always the safe haven backbone, will become even more sought after and holding a portion of your investment in physical gold would, in my opinion, be very wise.

It is likely to be a very difficult year for the Euro, especially if Greece is unable (or politically unwilling) to bring its finances back into line, but Greece is not the only problem for the single currency.

Spain has huge deficits on its books and both France and Germany who are the main driving economic forces have both been slightly under performing. Any further decline in output from either of these would create further and significant problems for the Euro zone.
The British economy does seem to have weathered the worst of the storm and although there is still a strong risk of it’s credit rating being reduced, I rather suspect that this will not happen and I am expecting to see the GBP continuing to increase in value against the USD throughout this year.

So what to do?

Well for a start, whatever you were doing successfully last year will most likely hold true for this year too. So I recommend that if your particular forex trading systems served you well last year, then do not change them, and if your forex systems were not up to scratch, try finding something that someone else has been using with success.

Secondly, try to take a more relaxed view. Be happy to sit on the sidelines watching for the right moment, rather than frantically trying to execute trade after trade. This could well be the year of the Tortoise versus the Hare, and will almost certainly not be a year to be reckless in your trading – not that being reckless in any year would be recommended, but many a trader did manage to excel in reckless ways in the “hay days” of the “boom gone by”.

Finally, do the same as always. Watch and wait for the opportunities that will surely come along, and when they do, be ready to take action.